UK house price growth at five-year low as values start to fall in London suburbs

Annual house price growth across the UK slowed to its weakest levels in over five years in October, official figures show.

And for the first time since 2011, annual house price falls have now rippled out into the London suburbs – following a falling trend already seen across central London this year.

Average house prices across the UK increased by 2.7% in the year to October, slowing down from 3% annual growth in September 2018.

2.7% growth in UK #houseprices in the year to October, down from 3.0% last month, with the average house price standing at £231,000

— ONS (@ONS) December 19, 2018

This marked the lowest annual growth since July 2013 when it was 2.3%, according to the report, released jointly by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), Land
Registry and other bodies.

Over the past two years, there has been a slowdown in UK house price growth, driven mainly by a slowdown in the South and East of England, the report said.

The average UK house price was £231,000 in October, falling by 0.2% month-on-month.

Across London as a whole, house prices fell by 1.7% annually in October to reach £474,000 on average, continuing a trend of price falls seen each month since July.

The report said falling house prices in London are mainly driven by inner London, which includes boroughs such as the City of London, Kensington and Chelsea, Westminster and Islington.

#LandRegistry/#ONS reported #UK #house #prices fell 0.2% month-on-month in October. The annual rate of increase slowed to 2.7%, the weakest since July 2013. Down from 3.0% in September & peak of 5.1% in Oct 2017. Prices in #London down 0.3% m/m & 1.7% y/y in October

— Howard Archer (@HowardArcherUK) December 19, 2018

House prices across inner London have been consistently falling annually since January.

But in the year to October, house prices in outer London fell by 0.2% – the first annual fall there since September 2011.

Outer London is made up of Barking and Dagenham, Barnet, Bexley, Brent, Bromley, Croydon, Ealing, Enfield, Haringey, Harrow, Havering, Hillingdon, Hounslow, Kingston, Merton, Redbridge, Richmond, Sutton, and Waltham Forest.

Both inner and outer London tend to follow similar trends in house price growth, with changes in outer London tending to appear slightly after those in inner London, the report said.

House prices in England increased at a slower pace than in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, increasing by 2.4% in the year to October.

The average price in England is now £248,000 with the North West showing the strongest annual house price growth there – at 4.9%.

House prices in Wales increased by 3.8% annually to reach £161,000.

In Scotland, the average price increased by 4.4% over the year to stand at £152,000.

The average house price in Northern Ireland is £135,000, a 4.8% increase over the year.

Jeremy Leaf, a north London estate agent and a former residential chairman of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) said: “Price falls in the London area are masking some resilience in the rest of the UK.”

Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics said: “Regions with high loan-to-income ratios are continuing to under-perform.”

Howard Archer, chief economic adviser at EY ITEM Club said: “We suspect that the housing market will be relatively lacklustre over the coming months – although there are varying performances across regions with the overall national picture dragged down by the poor performance in London and parts of the South East.

“Consequently, we expect overall house price gains across the UK over 2019 will be limited to around 2%.”