Britain’s record-breaking May heatwave did what discounts and bank holidays alone have struggled to manage in recent months: it got the nation’s shoppers reaching for their wallets again.
As temperatures climbed to a record 35.1C for the month, retail sales rose 3.7 per cent on an annual basis, according to the closely watched BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor compiled by the British Retail Consortium and the consultancy KPMG. It marked a striking turnaround from April, when consumer spending fell by 3 per cent as confidence buckled under geopolitical strain.
The sunshine rewrote shopping lists almost overnight. Sandals, sunglasses and summer clothing returned to growth, while fans, lighter bedding and outdoor toys sold briskly. Food sales, lifted by a wave of bank holiday barbecues, accelerated by 3.9 per cent year on year, with non-food purchases up 3.5 per cent.
“May’s heatwave drove a surge in outdoor and summer goods,” said Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium. “Clothing and footwear returned to growth as shoppers snapped up summer essentials like sandals and sunglasses. There was also a roaring trade in fans, lighter bedding and outdoor toys, and food sales were lifted by bank holiday barbecues. As temperatures rose, many opted to shop online to avoid the heat, boosting online sales.”
Alcohol was another clear winner as Britons gathered in gardens and beer gardens to make the most of the weather. Analysts at the retail research firm IGD expect that thirst to carry into the summer when the Fifa World Cup kicks off on Thursday — a tournament retailers across the grocery and hospitality trade are banking on to keep tills ringing.
The feel-good story was not universal. Separate research from Barclays, published in its monthly UK Consumer Spend Report, showed travel spending falling for a third consecutive month as conflict in the Middle East unsettled would-be holidaymakers. Travel outlay dropped 5.8 per cent in May, with spending on air tickets down 12.9 per cent, “suggesting consumers are putting off international travel”.
Wary of delays and cancellations, nearly half of Britons now plan to holiday at home this year, the bank found — a pronounced swing towards the “staycation” that echoes the warm-weather domestic spending boom seen last spring.
Instead, many chose to spend at the sofa. Outlay on digital content and subscriptions jumped 12.8 per cent, the sharpest rise since August 2021, as football fans signed up to the likes of Sky and TNT Sports to watch the final weekend of the Premier League season and the Uefa Champions League final.
“The warmer weather and first May bank holiday gave consumers more reasons to spend in May, particularly on seasonal essentials, UK breaks and affordable ways to enjoy time with family and friends,” said Karen Johnson, head of retail at Barclays.
For all the upbeat headlines, the recovery looks thinner once inflation is stripped out. Barclays put overall consumer spending growth at just 0.8 per cent in May — a reversal of April’s 0.1 per cent dip, but comfortably below the 2.8 per cent rate of inflation. In real terms, in other words, households were still spending less.
That gap is where the warning lights start to flash for retailers. Economists expect inflation to accelerate over the coming months as global energy prices climb on the back of conflict in the region, with some forecasting a move above 4 per cent. Investors increasingly believe the development will keep the Bank of England’s base rate pinned at 3.75 per cent for the rest of the year — and demand tends to stutter whenever prices rise.
The underlying picture remains fragile. Office for National Statistics figures, which measure volumes rather than spending, showed retail sales in Britain actually fell 1.3 per cent in April, a reminder that one hot month does not make a summer.
“The outlook beyond summer is more uncertain due to rises in the energy price cap from July and the risk of further increases later in the year, alongside effects of the Middle East conflict expected to drive up food inflation, both of which risk a downturn in shopper confidence,” said Sarah Bradbury, chief executive of IGD.
For now, the weather has handed the high street a welcome reprieve. Whether the World Cup and a long summer can sustain it, or whether rising bills snuff out the mood, will define the trading months ahead.
