How can you calculate who is going to win a fight based on history?

Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) has become one of the most popular combat sports in the world.

It’s a sport where two fighters, usually of different martial arts backgrounds, face off against each other in a cage or ring, using a combination of strikes, grappling, and submissions to try and emerge victorious.

As an avid MMA fan, it’s natural to wonder who would win in a fight between two fighters. While predicting the outcome of a fight can be difficult, there are certain factors that can help us make an educated guess based on historical data.

Looking at their previous record

One of the best indicators of how a fighter will perform in an upcoming fight is their previous record. A fighter’s win-loss record provides a good indication of their overall skill level and fighting ability. A fighter with a high win percentage is likely to have more experience and be more skilled than a fighter with a low win percentage.

For example, if we take a look at the record of UFC lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov, we can see that he has a perfect record of 29 wins and no losses. This record indicates that he is an extremely skilled fighter who has been able to consistently perform at a high level in his fights.

On the other hand, if we look at the record of a relatively unknown fighter with a record of 2 wins and 5 losses, we can see that they may not be as skilled or experienced as other fighters with better records.

However, it’s important to note that a fighter’s record doesn’t tell the whole story. A fighter may have a great record but have faced weak competition or be on a losing streak due to recent injuries or personal issues. Similarly, a fighter with a poor record may be highly skilled but have faced tough competition throughout their career.

The fighting style

Another factor to consider when predicting the outcome of a fight is the fighting style of the two fighters. MMA is a sport that allows fighters to use a wide range of techniques from various martial arts disciplines, including striking, grappling, and submissions.

Some fighters may excel in striking, while others may have a background in grappling or wrestling. By analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of each fighter, we can make a more informed prediction about how the fight may play out.

For example, if we take a look at a hypothetical matchup between two fighters – one with a background in Muay Thai and the other with a background in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ) – we can predict that the Muay Thai fighter will have the advantage in striking, while the BJJ fighter will be more skilled in grappling and submissions.

Of course, this is just a generalization and every fighter is unique. Some fighters may have a well-rounded skill set that allows them to excel in both striking and grappling, while others may have a specific style that is difficult for their opponents to counter.

Physical attributes

Another factor to consider is the physical attributes of the fighters. Height, weight, and reach can all play a role in how a fight plays out. A taller fighter may have a reach advantage that allows them to keep their opponent at bay, while a heavier fighter may be able to use their size and strength to overpower their opponent.

These physical attributes can also influence the betting odds for a fight. Bookmakers use a combination of factors, including a fighter’s record, fighting style, and physical attributes, to set the odds for each fight.

For example, in a hypothetical matchup between two fighters – one with a record of 20-2 and the other with a record of 15-7 – the bookmakers may favor the fighter with the better record, but also take into account the fighting styles and physical attributes of each fighter.

Where’s their head at?

In addition to the above factors, it’s also important to consider the mental and emotional state of the fighters. MMA is a physically and emotionally demanding sport, and fighters may be affected by a variety of factors outside of the cage or ring, such as personal issues or injuries.

A fighter who is dealing with personal issues or who has suffered a recent injury may not be in the best mental or physical shape for an upcoming fight, which could affect their performance. Conversely, a fighter who is feeling confident and motivated may perform better than expected.

There are also certain fighters who have a reputation for being mentally tough and able to overcome adversity due to MMA itself. These fighters may be more likely to perform well in high-pressure situations, such as a championship fight or a fight with a rival.

All of these factors can be used to make an educated guess about who will win a fight. However, it’s important to remember that there are always unexpected variables that can come into play during a fight, such as a lucky punch or a sudden injury.

How to use this information

This is why betting on MMA fights can be risky, and why it’s important to do your research and analyze as much data as possible before placing a bet.

When it comes to betting on MMA fights, there are a few different types of bets that you can make. The most common type of bet is a straight-up bet, where you simply bet on which fighter will win the fight.

Bookmakers also offer a variety of prop bets, which allow you to bet on specific outcomes or events during the fight. For example, you can bet on which fighter will win by knockout, or how many rounds the fight will last.

The odds for each bet are set by the bookmakers, based on a variety of factors, including the fighters’ records, fighting styles, and physical attributes.

For example, in the matchup odds for Jake Paul vs Tommy Fury, the bookmakers may set them at -200 for Jake and +150 for Tommy. This means that a $200 bet on Jake would win you $100 if he wins, while a $100 bet on Tommy would win you $150 if he wins.

Be weary of changes

It’s important to note that the odds can change leading up to the fight, based on factors such as injuries or changes in the fighters’ training camps.


In conclusion, predicting the outcome of an MMA fight based on historical data can be a complex process that requires analysis of multiple factors, including a fighter’s record, fighting style, physical attributes, and mental and emotional state.

While there is no surefire way to predict the outcome of a fight, doing your research and analyzing as much data as possible can help you make an educated guess and potentially place a winning bet. Just remember that there are always unexpected variables that can come into play during a fight, and that betting on MMA fights can be risky.